A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
